Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+ Cum va arata lumea in 2020, O predictie NIC (o divizie a C.I.A.)

http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html#contents The 2020 Global Landscape Relative Certainties Globalization largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized. Whether globalization will pull in lagging economies; degree to which Asian countries set new “rules of the game.” World economy substantially larger. Extent of gaps between “haves” and “have-nots”; backsliding by fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crises. Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies. Extent to which connectivity challenges governments. Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middle-weights. Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly. Aging populations in established powers. Ability of EU and Japan to adapt work forces, welfare systems, and integrate migrant populations; whether EU becomes a superpower. Energy supplies “in the ground” sufficient to meet global demand. Political instability in producer countries; supply disruptions. Growing power of nonstate actors. Willingness and ability of states and international institutions to accommodate these actors. Political Islam remains a potent force. Impact of religiosity on unity of states and potential for conflict; growth of jihadist ideology. Improved WMD capabilities of some states. More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear weapons. Arc of instability spanning Middle East, Asia, Africa. Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes. Great power conflict escalating into total war unlikely. Ability to manage flashpoints and competition for resources. Environmental and ethical issues even more to the fore. Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas. US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily. Whether other countries will more openly challenge Washington; whether US loses S&T edge. Daca nu gasiti interesant topicul rog admini sa il stearga.

http://www.odci.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020.html#contents

The 2020 Global Landscape


Relative Certainties

Globalization largely irreversible, likely to become less Westernized. Whether globalization will pull in lagging economies; degree to which Asian countries set new “rules of the game.”

World economy substantially larger. Extent of gaps between “haves” and “have-nots”; backsliding by fragile democracies; managing or containing financial crises.

Increasing number of global firms facilitate spread of new technologies. Extent to which connectivity challenges governments.

Rise of Asia and advent of possible new economic middle-weights. Whether rise of China/India occurs smoothly.

Aging populations in established powers. Ability of EU and Japan to adapt work forces, welfare systems, and integrate migrant populations; whether EU becomes a superpower.

Energy supplies “in the ground” sufficient to meet global demand. Political instability in producer countries; supply disruptions.

Growing power of nonstate actors. Willingness and ability of states and international institutions to accommodate these actors.

Political Islam remains a potent force. Impact of religiosity on unity of states and potential for conflict; growth of jihadist ideology.

Improved WMD capabilities of some states. More or fewer nuclear powers; ability of terrorists to acquire biological, chemical, radiological, or nuclear weapons.

Arc of instability spanning Middle East, Asia, Africa. Precipitating events leading to overthrow of regimes.

Great power conflict escalating into total war unlikely. Ability to manage flashpoints and competition for resources.

Environmental and ethical issues even more to the fore. Extent to which new technologies create or resolve ethical dilemmas.

US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily. Whether other countries will more openly challenge Washington; whether US loses S&T edge.

Daca nu gasiti interesant topicul rog admini sa il stearga.

Adica baietii astia chiar sunt platiti pentru asa ceva?

Mai general decat atat nici nu se putea.

Auzi la ei : 'US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily'. Siigur...si marmota...

Ce' ca Romania o sa intre in UE cand o intra Turcia ... tari americanii astia dar sa nu uitam ca ...

US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily.

Europa unita (de 30 de state) o sa produca 12.091 bil USD iar SUA doar 10.980 bil USD

This post has been edited by luxcor: 30 Aug 2005, 14:13

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mi s-a parut interesant asta

The greatest benefits of globalization will accrue to countries and groups that can access and adopt new technologies.  Indeed, a nation’s level of technological achievement generally will be defined in terms of its investment in integrating and applying the new, globally available technologies—whether the technologies are acquired through a country’s own basic research or from technology leaders.  The growing two-way flow of high-tech brain power between the developing world and the West, the increasing size of the information computer-literate work force in some developing countries, and efforts by global corporations to diversify their high-tech operations will foster the spread of new technologies.  High-tech breakthroughs—such as in genetically modified organisms and increased food production—could provide a safety net eliminating the threat of starvation and ameliorating basic quality of life issues for poor countries.  But the gap between the “haves” and “have-nots” will widen unless the “have-not” countries pursue policies that support application of new technologies—such as good governance, universal education, and market reforms.

Those countries that pursue such policies could leapfrog stages of development, skipping over phases that other high-tech leaders such as the United States and Europe had to traverse in order to advance.  China and India are well positioned to become technology leaders, and even the poorest countries will be able to leverage prolific, cheap technologies to fuel—although at a slower rate—their own development.

    * The expected next revolution in high technology involving the convergence of nano-, bio-, information and materials technology could further bolster China and India’s prospects.  Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders in a number of key fields.  Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies.  The United States is still in a position to retain its overall lead, although it must increasingly compete with Asia to retain its edge and may lose significant ground in some sectors.

Curios ca nu spune nimic ca in 2020, deci peste 15 ani, actualele rezervele mondiale de titei (800 miliarde barili) se vor fi epuizat total! Asta in conditiile in care consumul mondial anual creste cu 5% de la un an la altul in toata aceasta perioada. Daca consumul ramane constant, adica cca 76 milioane de barili pe zi (putin probabil), rezervele ajung pana prin 2030.

Dupa care...

toyota prius, honda civic hybrid ii mananca... (si nu numai pe americani!)

eventual prius cu panouri solare !!

prius-solar-lapp-01.jpg

This post has been edited by kukuruz: 30 Aug 2005, 15:03

Curios ca nu spune nimic ca in 2020, deci peste 15 ani, actualele rezervele mondiale de titei (800 miliarde barili) se vor fi epuizat total!

Da-mi voie sa te contrazic:
"Growing Demands for Energy
Growing demands for energy—especially by the rising powers—through 2020 will have substantial impacts on geopolitical relations. The single most important factor affecting the demand for energy will be global economic growth, particularly that of China and India.

Despite the trend toward more efficient energy use, total energy consumed probably will rise by about 50 percent in the next two decades compared to a 34 percent expansion from 1980–2000, with an increasing share provided by petroleum.

Renewable energy sources such as hydrogen, solar, and wind energy probably will account for only about 8 percent of the energy supply in 2020. While Russia, China, and India all plan expansions of their nuclear power sector, nuclear power probably will decline globally in absolute terms in the next decade.
The International Energy Agency assesses that with substantial investment in new capacity, overall energy supplies will be sufficient to meet growing global demand. Continued limited access of the international oil companies to major fields could restrain this investment, however, and many of the areas—the Caspian Sea, Venezuela, West Africa and South China Sea—that are being counted on to provide increased output involve substantial political or economic risk. Traditional suppliers in the Middle East are also increasingly unstable. Thus sharper demand-driven competition for resources, perhaps accompanied by a major disruption of oil supplies, is among the key uncertainties."



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Era vorba de rezervele de titei cunoscute si exploatabile la acest moment. Faptul ca:

"US Geological Survey estimates the amount of oil that is still to be found at about 3 trillions, three times the oil reserves known today (it is not clear if "all" that oil can actually be pumped to the surface and therefore used)." (sursa: LINK)

...mi se pare cam... science-fiction...

So yes, (motor)world must change radically. AND soon!

Go hybrid ! Go japs !

Dupa umila mea parere, nu consumul auto e cel mai mare "epuizator" de petrol si nu industria auto va fi afectata cel mai tare de terminarea rezervelor de hidrocarburi (exista deja alternative care se imbunatatesc continuu), ci industria petrochimica de care depindem mult mai tare decat de masini (de la haine pana la papica trecand prin toata plasticaraia din case).

Ditto LiviuM.

Aia dintre noi mai sanatosi vom vedea cu ochii nostri momentele in care petrolul va deveni ineficient economic. Peste 20-30-50 de ani... ideea e ca in timpul nostru.

Caci geaba se epuizeaza ele peste 100 de ani daca devin intre timp atat de scumpe incat alternativele ies in fata...
Eu unul de-abia astept. Asa, poate ca si poluarea va scadea.

rezervele , resursele şi posibilităţile de regenerare ale pământului sunt necunoscute tutror, doar extratereştrii care ne-au creiat cunosc finalul apoteoticcând ne vom bate cu praştiile.aşa cum arată producţia de plastice care nu reciclează deşeurile conduce la un consum enorm faţă de consumul auto de orice natură, chiar şi camioanele militare merg cu combustibil lichid, pe bază de petrol. dacă observăm o cotî mare din producţia zilnică este stocată de unchiul sam şi de alţii, numai de noi nu că nu s-a pus problema, noi permitem OMV ului să sugă la preţuri de nimic prin petrom, asta-i politica o mare curvă de doamnă.
totuşi , totu-i o speculaţie care conduce la preţurile fără nici o acoperire decât jocul de bursă iar partea vătămată suntem noi consumatorii a se vedea renuntarea la cresterea cu 900 lei vechi a preţului la benzină practicat de petrom în septembrie curent.
sa auzim numai de bine

Ce' ca Romania o sa intre in UE cand o intra Turcia ... tari americanii astia dar sa nu uitam ca ...

US will remain single most powerful actor economically, technologically, militarily.

Europa unita (de 30 de state) o sa produca 12.091 bil USD iar SUA doar 10.980 bil USD

Tu glumesti nu? Iti dai seama cu cat la % o sa scada randamentul UE cand o sa intre si Romania, Bulgaria, etc. in poza nu?

Vezi ca Suedia si Norvegia, Finlanda nu sunt in UE Si nici nu o sa fie probabil.

Sunt de acord cu afirmatia in bold. Singura tara care poate sa spuna ceva este China. UE in nici un caz (ma rog nici nu e o tara).

Pardon, Suedia si Finlanda sunt membre. Norvegia a refuzat de 2 ori.

Prefer UE in locul SUA la orice ora. In diversity lies unity